• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0647

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 17 06:09:38 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 170609
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 170609=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-170745-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0647
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0109 AM CDT Mon May 17 2021

    Areas affected...portions of north Texas and southwest OK

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 180...

    Valid 170609Z - 170745Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 180
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A couple of strong storms may persist another 1-2 hours,
    with near 1-inch hail and locally strong gusts possible. Gradual
    weakening in thunderstorm intensity is expected with eastward
    progression and downstream watches are not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Clusters of storms are ongoing across portions of the
    Texas South Plains eastward into north Texas and southwest OK. A
    severe-warned forward-propagating line of storms near the Red River
    has weakened considerably over the past 30 minutes as outflow has
    surged ahead of the line and convection moves into a weaker midlevel
    lapse rate environment. Furthermore, a southerly low level jet
    further west over western TX is weaker across western/central OK and
    north Texas. Overall this should result in a continued decrease in
    thunderstorm intensity both with the cluster of storms near the Red
    River to the Dyess AFB vicinity and a couple of weakening supercells
    just northwest of Fort Worth.=20

    A couple of stronger cells east of Lubbock will continue to pose a
    threat for near 1-inch hail and perhaps a strong gust over the next
    hour or so. This activity is occurring near the stronger low level
    jet and in a steeper midlevel lapse rate environment. However, this
    activity is also expected to gradually weaken through storm
    interactions and as convection progresses eastward into a less
    favorable downstream environment.

    ..Leitman.. 05/17/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ouIuhyPYl0bGKjlXtGWgSVoXM9gEgYdC-z3xoFsiM_pDUENSqF6hFA9h0KO8KAhtsrl95lUC$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

    LAT...LON 33350128 33730141 34030131 34000089 33899999 33919968
    34289916 34779886 34969866 34839821 34419766 33889740
    33239722 32829729 32549758 32439869 32430034 32740078
    33350128=20



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