• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0645

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 17 01:55:38 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 170155
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 170154=20
    TXZ000-170330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0645
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0854 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

    Areas affected...Southern Texas Panhandle through northwest Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 177...179...

    Valid 170154Z - 170330Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 177, 179
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Storms will continue to pose a risk for damaging wind and
    large hail especially across the southeast part of the TX Panhandle
    into northwest TX through 04Z. Trends will be monitored for a
    possible WW downstream across northwest TX.

    DISCUSSION...As of mid evening storms over the southeast TX
    Panhandle have become better organized and evolved into a bowing
    linear structure as it accelerates southeast. The downstream
    atmosphere remains moderately unstable and a strengthening southerly
    low-level jet should support a forward propagating line next couple
    hours. However, visible imagery just prior to sunset showed a
    westward surging outflow boundary across northwest TX. This along
    with onset of nocturnal cooling increases uncertainty regarding how
    storms will evolve as they move into northwest TX. It is possible
    storms may intensify further as they interact with the convective
    outflow boundary, but weaken soon after. Given the mesoscale
    uncertainties, any additional WW issuance downstream of WW 177 / 179
    will depend on convective trends during the next hour or two.

    ..Dial.. 05/17/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tS4ek0yajQTcse6-4DYoWoBc_FVAtX6MwKsbyoQ-7ZXiltCox5RyXuWt9ZAqTAxQ42_WhSWa$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

    LAT...LON 34830071 34249975 34009929 33429953 33650077 34460159
    34870124 34830071=20



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