• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0644

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 17 00:07:06 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 170007
    SPC MCD 170006=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0644
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0706 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

    Areas affected...West-Central Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 170006Z - 170100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Southwestward propagating convection with a localized
    hail/wind threat likely to continue through the evening.

    DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a small cluster of storms
    developing along and south of a stationary boundary paralleling the
    I-70 corridor. These cells are developing within a northwesterly
    mid- and upper-level flow regime in the wake of an MCV located in
    eastern Kansas, and on the eastern periphery of an instability axis
    situated across the western half of Kansas, characterized by
    1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Given the weakly sheared environment,
    storms have and will likely continue to be somewhat disorganized,
    with pulse updrafts and renewed convective development occurring
    along their southwestern flank. Severe hail and gusty outflow winds
    can be expected with this activity for a few more hours.

    ..Karstens/Grams.. 05/17/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tt28Eb1UAzUQaNYRcodJmBDY290MfAegVNCISZiBo4CDe_YKGc05Fdg0ArA-ZPeILfRZUMzv$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 39019895 38649855 38209875 37669962 37780015 38390023
    38839958 39019895=20

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