Mesoscale Discussion 0643
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0612 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021
Areas affected...the Texas Panhandle
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 177...
Valid 162312Z - 170045Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 177
SUMMARY...Threat for mainly isolated large hail will persist through
01Z over the TX Panhandle, after which the primary threat may
transition to damaging wind.
DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms continue along a nearly
stationary outflow boundary across southern portions of the TX
Panhandle as well as along the outflow boundary-dryline intersection
and a short distance southward along the dryline. Storms remain
discrete in character, suggesting large hail remains the primary
short-term threat. The atmosphere is moderately unstable, and a
strengthening southerly low-level jet this evening will augment
mesoscale forcing along the outflow boundary. Storms might become
numerous enough for individual outflows to merge, eventually
supporting the potential for a forward propagating MCS. Should this
evolution occur, the primary threat will transition to damaging wind
by 01Z as storms develop southeast.
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