• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0642

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 16 22:52:34 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 162252
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 162252=20
    TXZ000-162345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0642
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0552 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

    Areas affected...southwest Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 162252Z - 162345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated storms may intensify over a portion of southwest
    TX and become capable of producing mainly large hail. It remains
    uncertain whether storm coverage and duration will be sufficient to
    warrant a WW, but short term trends are being monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Early this evening deep convective initiation is
    occurring along the dryline across southwest TX just southeast of
    the Midland area. The atmosphere in this region is moderately to
    strongly unstable with up to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE and 7.5 C/km mid-level
    lapse rates. Effective bulk shear from 30-35 kt may undergo a slight
    increase this evening. Overall environment appears sufficient for a
    couple of supercells. However, given what appears to be a somewhat
    subsident regime aloft, there is some uncertainty regarding how long
    storms will last, especially with increasing convective inhibition
    associated with the onset of nocturnal cooling after 01Z.
    Nevertheless, at least a storm or two storm might intensify and
    become capable of producing large hail through about 02Z.

    ..Dial/Grams.. 05/16/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!prkfPHVeAHOSZsbQt8PBxKTuDWtT6iYHf28Ly3IHjuzDpA0N_dvPI0hrSj_27YuqglRTqoOB$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 31310195 32050209 32510166 32160067 31270059 30700190
    31310195=20



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