• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0641

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 16 22:50:08 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 162250
    SPC MCD 162249=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0641
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0549 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

    Areas affected...Central Missouri and West-Central Illinois

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 162249Z - 170015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A few storms capable of severe hail and damaging winds
    possible this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Regional surface analysis shows a convectively
    reinforced east-west oriented baroclinic zone/stationary boundary
    situated along the I-70 corridor across central Missouri. South of
    this boundary, southerly low-level flow is present, with surface dew
    point temperatures in the low 60s F and 20-25 kt of flow at 850 mb.
    These factors are providing the impetus for renewed convective
    development along and north of the boundary. South of the boundary,
    the environment features modest indices to support severe
    convection, including MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg, low-level lapse
    rates near 7-8 C/km, and effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt. Given
    these conditions, a few strong storms are possible, posing a threat
    for severe hail and damaging wind gusts. Current trends suggest this
    activity should remain fairly isolated, and thus, a watch issuance
    is not anticipated at this time.

    ..Karstens/Grams.. 05/16/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!skYrOAuhNAc3RL9_rtNY1G0jbLqMAjABNltfBlJ-FBHbW63RMEioXMf_II9yq_gbCTcc10nY$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 38888996 37999218 38289444 38999350 39849064 38888996=20

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