• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0640

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 16 22:12:04 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 162212
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 162211=20
    KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-162345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0640
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0511 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

    Areas affected...Eastern Colorado...Northwest Kansas...and far
    Southwest Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 162211Z - 162345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong storms capable of severe hail and gusty
    outflow winds are possible this evening. WW issuance not
    anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows clearing/destabilization
    occurring and a broad/deepening cumulus field developing across much
    of eastern Colorado into northwest Kansas, with a few convective
    cells developing north of WW 177 along a stationary boundary. The
    environment in this region is characterized by moderate buoyancy
    (MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg), steep low-level lapse rates (8-9 C/km), and
    weak deep layer shear (20-25 kt effective shear), per the latest SPC mesoanalysis. A few strong storms are possible this evening with
    this activity, posing an isolated threat for severe hail and gusty
    outflow winds. Given the weakly sheared environment, storms will
    likely struggle to maintain organization and become somewhat
    disorganized. Thus, although a few strong storms are possible, watch
    issuance is not anticipated at this time.

    ..Karstens/Grams.. 05/16/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!u_qETK-9j-KHT6jm7xPiyLxEyPE_6f5D3iMqUC1xzX3PcVhxQTbTgn9TMP9Q3sr32KbpkA3L$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

    LAT...LON 38220330 38650423 39930341 40320197 39840052 38890020
    38270088 38220330=20



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