• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0639

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 16 20:47:07 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 162047
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 162046=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-162215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0639
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0346 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

    Areas affected...South-Central OK/Northwest TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 162046Z - 162215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A relatively small spatial and temporal corridor for
    supercell intensification/organization exists across south-central
    OK and northwest TX.

    DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery shows that the area
    just downstream from the outflow associated with the MCV and
    persistent convection over central OK has cleared out. Temperatures
    in this region have quickly increased into the upper 70s/low 80s
    amid dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Additionally, the surface
    winds within this region have backed, with numerous sites now
    reporting southeasterly winds around 10 kt. Overall convective
    evolution within this corridor is uncertain, particularly given the westward/northwestward moving outflow coming from north-central TX.
    However, potential exists for the development of a strong to severe
    storm, particularly if the storm over Cotton County OK is able to
    maintain intensity. As a result, a very conditional risk for hail,
    damaging wind gusts, and perhaps even a brief tornado exists.

    ..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/16/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sn8l2DewK72BLE6bk_YACvMvBI4R62gB3Qhbx4CrqExxpXgagaXgJFC9h-NRRzCy50Kajz7W$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 33819889 34339853 34659763 34649723 34629704 34389673
    33879664 33739668 33479676 33239711 33129754 33079813
    33219866 33399892 33819889=20



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