Mesoscale Discussion 0639
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021
Areas affected...South-Central OK/Northwest TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 162046Z - 162215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A relatively small spatial and temporal corridor for
supercell intensification/organization exists across south-central
OK and northwest TX.
DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery shows that the area
just downstream from the outflow associated with the MCV and
persistent convection over central OK has cleared out. Temperatures
in this region have quickly increased into the upper 70s/low 80s
amid dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Additionally, the surface
winds within this region have backed, with numerous sites now
reporting southeasterly winds around 10 kt. Overall convective
evolution within this corridor is uncertain, particularly given the westward/northwestward moving outflow coming from north-central TX.
However, potential exists for the development of a strong to severe
storm, particularly if the storm over Cotton County OK is able to
maintain intensity. As a result, a very conditional risk for hail,
damaging wind gusts, and perhaps even a brief tornado exists.
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