• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0638

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 16 20:17:05 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 162016
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 162016=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-162215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0638
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0316 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

    Areas affected...Eastern NM...Western/Central TX Panhandle...TX
    South Plains

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 162016Z - 162215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage anticipated, with an
    attendant threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. A Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed to cover this threat.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows cumulus continuing to
    deepen along the dryline across central NM. Mesoanalysis estimates
    that convective inhibition has now eroded downstream across much of east-central NM, and the expectation is for the deepening to
    continue, with eventual convective initiation. This activity, along
    with the storms developing across far northeast NM and southeast CO
    (discussed in MCD 636), is expected to move eastward over time into
    the more moist and unstable air mass over the TX Panhandle.=20
    Additionally, cumulus has started to build in the vicinity of a
    remnant outflow boundary which stretches from near DHT southeastward
    to north of CDS. 19Z AMA sounding sampled a weakly capped
    environment near this boundary, and there is at least some potential
    for thunderstorm development along this boundary as well.

    Overall expectation is for thunderstorm coverage to gradually
    increase over the next few hours. The environment is weakly sheared,
    but steep low/mid-level lapse rates coupled favorable low-level
    moisture will still result in enough buoyancy for strong to severe
    storms. Hail is possible with initial, more cellular development and
    as a result of updraft intensification due to cell mergers. High
    storm bases and a deeply mixed boundary layer will also promote
    strong outflow. Some amalgamation of this outflow is possible later
    this evening.

    ..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/16/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rREO_uUZpRH-ggb_V0vStnQ1ujiNMw-vMcahJWZIvWHX6nl8WVKrh2JakOyRmMPCeMA2vh2a$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 33570527 35600480 36090393 36200265 35860098 33810127
    33460386 33570527=20



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