• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0637

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 16 19:28:32 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 161928
    SPC MCD 161928=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0637
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0228 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

    Areas affected...central Nevada into western Utah

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 161928Z - 162100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A few severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts or
    small hail will be possible this afternoon and evening. A weather
    watch is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...12z RAOBS and latest WV imagery placed the center of a
    570 dm upper-low near the southern border of Nevada and California.
    Deep ascent from the upper low and the -20 C cold pocket aloft have
    overspread surface dewpoints of 40-45 F across much of central
    Nevada and Utah. With the subsequent steep mid-level lapse rates
    weak buoyancy, on the order of 500 J/kg, has developed and will
    support scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
    Deep-layer shear is weak with model soundings and VWPs showing less
    than 30 kts. This should limit storm organization to a few stronger
    multi cells capable of damaging wind gusts. Small hail may also be
    possible given the very cold temperatures aloft. The limited storm
    organization should negate the need for a weather watch though
    trends will be monitored.

    ..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/16/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pTJAOP9ACqYcKUnMFZOJfXx-Z4wFsdL1YlJafF7S91GSy06yba3_IRB18O9JtbfiLjlwcNvN$=
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    LAT...LON 41411419 41521299 41261241 40981218 40661210 40321206
    39801220 39551262 38971456 38601590 38531649 38491719
    38951757 39371770 39891756 40361728 40671679 41211497

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