Mesoscale Discussion 0637
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021
Areas affected...central Nevada into western Utah
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 161928Z - 162100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A few severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts or
small hail will be possible this afternoon and evening. A weather
watch is unlikely.
DISCUSSION...12z RAOBS and latest WV imagery placed the center of a
570 dm upper-low near the southern border of Nevada and California.
Deep ascent from the upper low and the -20 C cold pocket aloft have
overspread surface dewpoints of 40-45 F across much of central
Nevada and Utah. With the subsequent steep mid-level lapse rates
weak buoyancy, on the order of 500 J/kg, has developed and will
support scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Deep-layer shear is weak with model soundings and VWPs showing less
than 30 kts. This should limit storm organization to a few stronger
multi cells capable of damaging wind gusts. Small hail may also be
possible given the very cold temperatures aloft. The limited storm
organization should negate the need for a weather watch though
trends will be monitored.
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