• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0636

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 16 19:24:04 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 161924
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 161923=20
    OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-162130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0636
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0223 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

    Areas affected...Southeast CO...Northeast NM...Far Western OK
    Panhandle...Far Northwest TX Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 161923Z - 162130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this
    afternoon across the region. Damaging wind gusts and isolated hail
    are possible with the strongest storms, as well as a few landspouts

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery has shown increasing cumulus
    across the Front Range/Sangre De Cristos over the past few hours.
    Some lightning has recently been observed within the convection
    along the CO/NM border with a strong cell now ongoing over Union
    County NM. General expectation is for the storms to continue
    building over the high terrain before then moving eastward into
    southeast CO and north-east NM. Additionally, a surface low is in
    place over southeast CO and increasing low-level convergence in the
    vicinity of this low likely contributed to storm initiation in Union
    County NM.=20

    Expectation is for storm coverage to increase over the next few
    hours as diurnal heating contributes to moderate destabilization. A
    deeply mixed boundary layer and resultant steep low/mid-level lapse
    rates suggest the primary severe threat will be damaging wind gusts
    associated with thunderstorm outflow. Some isolated hail may also
    occur. Additionally, given the increased surface vorticity
    associated with the surface low, landspouts also appear possible.

    ..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/16/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uF6dipHwY0kQ2qwqo4pNhdSXoDx4I_LgGSy7dvalU8-fUuqI1C9mw8Wi29Spn_ce7fRHSmFN$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 37880521 38590521 38630414 38210241 37350214 36130267
    36450434 36900508 37880521=20



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