• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0635

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 16 18:28:04 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 161827
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 161827=20
    MOZ000-KSZ000-162000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0635
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0127 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

    Areas affected...eastern Kansas western Missouri

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 161827Z - 162000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong/severe thunderstorms may develop this
    afternoon along and south of an outflow boundary across the Kansas
    Missouri border. Damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible.

    DISCUSSION...1800 UTC RADAR observation showed a poorly organized
    cluster of thunderstorm across portions of eastern Kansas and
    western Missouri ahead of an MCV across central Oklahoma. To the
    south of the ongoing complex, a well defined outflow boundary was
    observed in the vicinity of the Kansas City Metro. A few
    thunderstorms have developed along and south of this boundary within
    the last half hour. Visible satellite and surface data show clearing
    and warming are ongoing to the south and east of these storms across
    southern Missouri and northwest Arkansas. Airmass recovery from
    earlier cloud cover appears to be underway with surface temperatures
    and dewpoints in the low 70s and low 60s F respectively contributing
    to 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE from SPC mesoanalysis.=20

    Primary uncertainty revolves around the limited potential for
    convective organization given weak mid and upper-level flow. Some
    increase in the weak bulk-shear profile (currently < 25 kts) is
    possible as the MCV across Oklahoma spreads northeastward over the
    next couple of hours. The main severe threat with storms through
    this afternoon will be damaging winds, but some potential for
    near-severe hail will remain possible given mid-level lapse rates
    around 7 C/km. Convective trends will be monitored, but uncertainty
    on storm organization suggests a weather watch is unlikely.

    ..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/16/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oYTt3qYw8J4JbPxbJJOZRh6ZobKtmOpRGlZ_5m9MTm61qwKigwKjJD4pju-MKj6Y9gG_XYJw$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

    LAT...LON 38759510 39249390 39299282 39259219 38829173 38029161
    37639202 37149312 37209553 37369599 38069621 38759510=20



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