• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0634

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 16 17:15:34 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 161715
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 161715=20
    TXZ000-161915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0634
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1215 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

    Areas affected...Central/East TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 161715Z - 161915Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms possible this afternoon
    across portions of central and east TX. Isolated damaging wind gusts
    are the primary threat.

    DISCUSSION...Regional satellite and radar imagery reveals a pair of
    MCVs across the southern Plains, one over central OK and the other
    along the middle TX Coast. Modest southerly low-level flow exists
    between these two features, roughly along and east of I-35. The
    thermodynamic environment is expected to remain only marginally
    buoyant, with overall buoyancy tempered by the limited diurnal
    heating. Even so, thunderstorms are expected to persist while
    gradually drifting eastward throughout the day.=20

    Surface winds have been backing a bit more southeasterly just ahead
    of the storms, which, when coupled with the modest low-level
    southerly flow and westerly flow aloft, result in a kinematic
    profile that could support a supercell or two. Damaging wind gusts
    would be the primary threat with any stronger updrafts/supercells,
    with some low-probability potential for a brief tornado as well.
    Marginal and isolated nature of the severe threat is expected to
    preclude the need for a watch.

    ..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/16/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!s6lNC8s-BPoX9IsXEOd0I_jhuJg6zLPrDghlpcLikp99tZtC2iHXHvSXFsGt6B4JmrUDG6iM$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

    LAT...LON 31549740 32299689 32619581 32419494 31799459 30429490
    29919706 30389770 31549740=20



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