• Indian-N: Tauktae W009

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Sun May 16 08:06:00 2021
    WTIO31 PGTW 160900
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 009//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 009
    01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
    WARNING POSITION:
    160600Z --- NEAR 15.9N 72.8E
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
    POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
    SATELLITE AND RADAR
    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 72.8E
    ---
    FORECASTS:
    12 HRS, VALID AT:
    161800Z --- 17.4N 72.1E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
    24 HRS, VALID AT:
    170600Z --- 19.0N 71.4E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
    36 HRS, VALID AT:
    171800Z --- 20.5N 70.9E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
    48 HRS, VALID AT:
    180600Z --- 21.8N 71.2E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
    72 HRS, VALID AT:
    190600Z --- 25.0N 73.1E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
    REMARKS:
    160900Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 72.6E.
    16MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 626
    NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09
    KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
    IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A 14NM EYE NOW FORMING AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
    BECOMES MORE COMPACT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
    CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED EYE FEATURE AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE COMPOSITE WEATHER RADAR LOOP FROM GOA, INDIA. THE
    INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS SET WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND PLACED
    IN LINE WITH THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.0/90KTS AND HEDGED
    SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DEMS T4.5/77KTS, THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
    (ADT) OF T4.7/82KTS AND SATELLITE CONSENSUS (SATCON) ESTIMATE OF
    78KTS. THIS INCREASE IN INTENSITY REFLECTS THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT IS
    BEGINNING TO OCCUR DUE TO A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. ANALYSIS
    INDICATES ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
    VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10KTS), AND WARM (31C) SEA SURFACE
    TEMPERATURE. TC 01A WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THROUGH TAU
    36 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
    TO THE EAST. THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
    THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, FUELED BY THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
    CONDITIONS, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 24.
    AFTERWARD, IT WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWARD AND ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS
    BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL BETWEEN VERAVAL AND MAHUVA, INDIA, SHORTLY
    AFTER TAUS 36. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO
    LAND INTERACTION. AFTER LANDFALL, THE CYCLONE WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AS
    IT TRACKS ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU
    72, POSSIBLY SOONER. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TIGHTENED IN
    AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD, NOW ONLY 68NM AT TAU 36
    AND INCREASES TO A MERE MAXIMUM OF 193NM THROUGH TAU 72. TRACK
    CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH UP TO TAU 48, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD
    AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE OVERLAND. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID
    SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND A BIT FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS
    AFTER TAU 36 IN ANTICIPATION OF A MORE INTENSE CYCLONE THAN WHAT
    CONW SUGGESTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 31
    FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z, AND 170900Z.//
    NNNN
    --- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)