• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0633

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 16 03:41:29 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 160341
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 160340=20
    KSZ000-160515-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0633
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1040 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

    Areas affected...western through southern Kansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 176...

    Valid 160340Z - 160515Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 176
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Storms will continue to pose a threat for isolated large
    hail and locally strong wind gusts over western through central and
    southern KS through 05Z followed by a gradual weakening trend.

    DISCUSSION...Widely scattered to scattered storms continue
    developing within an evolving warm advection regime. Latest VWP data
    show the low-level jet has strengthened to 40 kt, and this should
    support additional storms the next couple of hours. The atmosphere
    is moderately unstable with 1500 J/kg MUCAPE. However, winds aloft
    are relatively weak indicating storms will remain primarily
    multicell in character, and also suggests the large hail threat with
    any given updraft will be brief. A few instances of locally strong
    wind gusts are also possible within the stronger cores.

    ..Dial.. 05/16/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!q9pxCHu7CgUew7Q-9Rl9q0fXT4gl_qMAOeoOu-KMe1munCAdPQO0StfjG9WK6AUb1kweuYRr$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...GLD...

    LAT...LON 37269748 37559940 38170135 38710139 38870029 38589820
    37999732 37269748=20



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