• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0632

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 16 02:33:29 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 160233
    SPC MCD 160232=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0632
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0932 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

    Areas affected...West/Southwest Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173...

    Valid 160232Z - 160400Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 173.

    DISCUSSION...Storms moving off the high terrain of southeast New
    Mexico have grown upscale into a linear mode. Ahead of this line, a
    left moving supercell with a history of severe hail continues to
    move northeast toward WW 172. Steep mid-level lapse rates and high
    50s F dew point temperatures are promoting near 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE
    amid 30-35 kt of effective shear. However, instability diminishes
    somewhat abruptly to the east of WW 173. Thus, the ongoing
    convection should remain organized for a few more hours, maintaining
    a threat for mainly damaging wind gusts.

    Farther south, a multicell cluster of storms producing large hail
    and damaging winds continues to move southeast, approaching Val
    Verde county. These storms will likely exit WW 173 within an hour or
    so, and a downstream watch is not anticipated at this time due to
    the limited spatial coverage of the threat.

    ..Karstens.. 05/16/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!r9F6_ByxsCFtbt2KNAGg93PpQ787B-SuqTXOHkSOyiIwKIBV5lMMpxdaj-qV2mYgb_iuxWZB$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 29690185 29760228 30340248 31770281 32830283 33130242
    32920114 31580098 30630090 29930099 29660135 29690185=20

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