• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0629

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 16 00:41:58 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 160041
    SPC MCD 160041=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0629
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0741 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

    Areas affected...Southeast Wyoming and far Western Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 160041Z - 160245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail/damaging wind threat possible, watch
    issuance unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Regional radar/satellite shows scattered convection
    with fairly robust updrafts moving into south-central portions of
    Wyoming. The ambient environment remains weakly unstable (MUCAPE
    500-1000 J/kg) amid moderate deep-layer shear (35-40 kt effective
    bulk shear). This activity may pose a risk for isolated severe hail
    and damaging wind gusts for the next few hours.=20

    As this activity traverses eastward off the high terrain it will
    encounter richer low-level moisture, where 50 F dew point
    temperatures are currently analyzed across portions of southeast
    Wyoming. Should storms hold together, some intensification of the
    activity can be expected. Given the ambient shear profile, storms
    may congeal into more a linear mode (as suggested by recent HRRR
    runs), perhaps maintaining a damaging wind threat later this

    ..Karstens/Grams.. 05/16/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oWXTaffV8JSfu3BotFioW9cozytPlj2Iol3fJuuMCerW4cRFkfi6mwEmdaO8nNrWgJUjYPgi$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 41070470 41060670 41680803 41800876 42540901 42890840
    43060629 42920461 42560408 42090349 41250329 41030370

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