• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0628

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 16 00:13:28 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 160013
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 160012=20
    NEZ000-COZ000-160115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0628
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0712 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

    Areas affected...southwest Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 160012Z - 160115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing over southwest Nebraska this
    evening might become capable of producing isolated large hail and
    locally strong wind gusts. Overall threat will probably not warrant
    a WW, but trends will continue to be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Storms are currently developing across southwest NE
    within a weak warm advection regime, and additional storms are
    expected this evening as the southerly low-level jet strengthens.
    Widespread clouds have limited surface heating resulting in modest
    MLCAPE (500-1000 J/kg). However, vertical wind profiles with up to
    40 kt effective bulk shear (as sampled by the 00Z North Platte RAOB)
    will be sufficient for a few rotating updrafts which along with
    7-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates will support the potential for a
    few instances of large hail. Activity might eventually evolve into a
    small MCS before weakening later this evening.

    ..Dial/Grams.. 05/16/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rbDFGWacYTj-AvGum6QG_zQADH-uX2foT3Rv-JxbFXm3xWTzt20OQIxiCHY3XuUhlRDK5hTe$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...

    LAT...LON 40490208 41430251 41940230 41800109 41370020 40450063
    40490208=20



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