Mesoscale Discussion 0628
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0712 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021
Areas affected...southwest Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 160012Z - 160115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing over southwest Nebraska this
evening might become capable of producing isolated large hail and
locally strong wind gusts. Overall threat will probably not warrant
a WW, but trends will continue to be monitored.
DISCUSSION...Storms are currently developing across southwest NE
within a weak warm advection regime, and additional storms are
expected this evening as the southerly low-level jet strengthens.
Widespread clouds have limited surface heating resulting in modest
MLCAPE (500-1000 J/kg). However, vertical wind profiles with up to
40 kt effective bulk shear (as sampled by the 00Z North Platte RAOB)
will be sufficient for a few rotating updrafts which along with
7-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates will support the potential for a
few instances of large hail. Activity might eventually evolve into a
small MCS before weakening later this evening.
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