• Indian-N: Tauktae W007

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Sat May 15 19:55:00 2021
    WTIO31 PGTW 152100
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 007//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 007
    01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
    WARNING POSITION:
    151800Z --- NEAR 14.6N 72.9E
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
    POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
    SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 72.9E
    ---
    FORECASTS:
    12 HRS, VALID AT:
    160600Z --- 15.9N 72.3E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
    24 HRS, VALID AT:
    161800Z --- 17.3N 71.5E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
    36 HRS, VALID AT:
    170600Z --- 18.7N 70.7E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
    48 HRS, VALID AT:
    171800Z --- 20.3N 70.5E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
    72 HRS, VALID AT:
    181800Z --- 23.3N 71.2E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
    LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
    96 HRS, VALID AT:
    191800Z --- 26.6N 74.4E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
    120 HRS, VALID AT:
    201800Z --- 28.8N 77.7E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
    REMARKS:
    152100Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 72.8E.
    15MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
    263 NM SOUTH OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
    OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
    IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AND HAS BECOME
    MORE SYMMETRICAL WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND AN
    EVOLVING EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
    CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 151703Z
    AMSU-B 89GHZ PASS AND COMPOSITE WEATHER RADAR LOOP FROM GOA, INDIA.
    THE INITIAL INTENSITY 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE
    OF T4.0/65KTS AND ADT OF T3.9/63KTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
    INDICATES FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH ROBUST POLEWARD
    OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), AND WARM (31C) SEA
    SURFACE TEMPERATURE. TC 01A IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
    PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND
    WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THROUGH TAU 36. AFTERWARD, IT
    WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWARD AND ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS BEFORE MAKING
    LANDFALL NEAR VERAVAL, INDIA SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48. THE POSSIBILITY
    OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) REMAINS HIGH DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
    HOURS AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE, REACHING A
    PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL
    BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH LAND INTERACTION. AFTER LANDFALL, THE CYCLONE
    WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN, LEADING
    TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120, POSSIBLY SOONER. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
    IS IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 90NM
    AT TAU 48 AND INCREASING TO A MAXIMUM OF 200NM THROUGH TAU 120. IN
    VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE UP TO TAU 48, THEN MEDIUM
    CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD, IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID
    SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND A BIT FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS
    AFTER TAU 36 IN ANTICIPATION OF A MORE INTENSE CYCLONE THAN WHAT
    CONW SUGGESTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 25
    FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.
    //
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