• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0627

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 15 23:44:31 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 152344
    SPC MCD 152344=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0627
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0644 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

    Areas affected...southern Kansas through northeast Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 152344Z - 160045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage,
    primarily over southern Kansas this evening. The primary threat will
    be isolated large hail, but a few instances of downburst winds are
    also possible.

    DISCUSSION...Early this evening a stationary front extends from
    northeast OK through southern KS. The atmosphere is moderately
    unstable in the vicinity of this boundary with up to 2500 J/kg
    MUCAPE along with steep (7.5-8 C/km) mid-level lapse rates. Storms
    are in the process of developing along/north of this boundary and
    activity should increase in coverage as the low-level jet
    strengthens this evening. Vertical wind profiles are weak, so
    multicells should be the primary mode. Nevertheless, a few instances
    of large hail may occur with initial storms before activity begins
    to weaken by late evening.

    ..Dial/Grams.. 05/15/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tnAwijlpRmsC1WCrwVUS2aX2snK3RiDN6VuCnoD1WzgBpTX2lDYCB1mB_hNLVfHOkQd9P1oy$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 38380042 38289822 37229604 36659646 37369856 37810063

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