• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0626

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 15 23:35:57 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 152335
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 152335=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-160100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0626
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0635 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

    Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico and West/Southwest Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173...

    Valid 152335Z - 160100Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts
    continues across WW 173.

    DISCUSSION...Regional radar/satellite shows a relatively long-lived
    supercell with a history of producing severe hail moving southeast
    through portions of Pecos county into Terrell county in the Big Bend
    region of southwest Texas. Other cells developing along high
    terrain in portions of far southwest Texas into southeast New Mexico
    are beginning to enter western portions of WW 173. One of these
    cells produced a measured wind gust of 62 mph at the Culberson, TX,
    ASOS station.

    In the near term, isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will
    remain the primary threat with the ongoing convective activity,
    particularly as storms continue moving eastward into improving
    thermodynamic conditions. Presently, SPC mesoanalysis shows MLCAPE
    ranging from near 1000 J/kg in western portions of the watch area,
    to near 2000 J/kg along the eastern edge, amid effective shear
    values near 35 kt promoting multicell and transient supercell
    structures. Thus, the severe threat is expected to continue.=20

    To the east of WW 173, stabilizing outflow from previous convective
    activity is evident in visible satellite imagery, with near 100 J/kg
    of SBCIN analyzed in mesoanalysis. These observations suggest the
    storm entering Terrell county may have somewhat limited aerial
    extent of severe potential as it nears the southeastern edge of the
    watch area. However, convective trends will continue to be monitored
    closely.

    With time, storms farther west may congeal into more of a linear
    structure, and should this occur, the threat will transition to
    primarily damaging winds through the remainder of the evening.

    ..Karstens.. 05/15/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!o0reMAOk7zJHkPG8MahpiBjycaBZCShFfadgTqh3t8VJae38ZcBtXuhfQe3NK2ZUCH1E-DqI$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 32330432 33260398 33590325 33170251 32840109 31350104
    30210122 29580212 28990320 29320389 30740490 32330432=20



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