• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0624

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 15 22:57:28 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 152257
    SPC MCD 152256=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0624
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0556 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

    Areas affected...eastern New Mexico through western Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 172...

    Valid 152256Z - 160030Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 172

    SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and downburst winds remain possible
    through early evening with storms spreading east through the High
    Plains of eastern New Mexico and western Texas.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered high-based storms continue developing across
    the High Plains and spreading east off the higher terrain of eastern
    NM. Winds aloft are relatively weak with 20 kt at 500 mb resulting
    in less than 30 kt effective bulk shear. This environment is
    promoting outflow dominant multicells. Given the large number of
    storms, the convective outflow boundaries should congeal and
    contribute to development of a forward-propagating line of storms
    through west TX where the atmosphere is moderately unstable in the
    presence of a strengthening southerly low-level jet. As storms grow
    upscale, the threat should transition from isolated large hail and
    downburst winds to mostly damaging wind before storms weaken toward
    late evening as the boundary layer begins to stabilize.

    ..Dial.. 05/15/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uUCa4YFu2hiSx18h95fWSu5Ot8H3t-N9h8ilIvNC410C5Y2iosDwdTBzeRNBZdGnYaQkvqd6$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 33400332 35510387 36610392 36860315 36620241 35110161
    33620131 33200252 33400332=20

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