Mesoscale Discussion 0624
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0556 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021
Areas affected...eastern New Mexico through western Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 172...
Valid 152256Z - 160030Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 172
SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and downburst winds remain possible
through early evening with storms spreading east through the High
Plains of eastern New Mexico and western Texas.
DISCUSSION...Scattered high-based storms continue developing across
the High Plains and spreading east off the higher terrain of eastern
NM. Winds aloft are relatively weak with 20 kt at 500 mb resulting
in less than 30 kt effective bulk shear. This environment is
promoting outflow dominant multicells. Given the large number of
storms, the convective outflow boundaries should congeal and
contribute to development of a forward-propagating line of storms
through west TX where the atmosphere is moderately unstable in the
presence of a strengthening southerly low-level jet. As storms grow
upscale, the threat should transition from isolated large hail and
downburst winds to mostly damaging wind before storms weaken toward
late evening as the boundary layer begins to stabilize.
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