• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0623

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 15 20:57:02 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 152056
    SPC MCD 152056=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0623
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0356 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

    Areas affected...Central Nevada

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 152056Z - 152230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing beneath an upper-level low may
    produce occasional severe wind gusts or hail through this evening.
    Trends will be monitored, but a weather watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity has steadily
    increased over the last half hour across portions of central Nevada
    as stronger ascent from the upper low across the Great Basin has
    moved overhead. Additional strong/severe storm development appears
    likely late this afternoon and into the evening with the risk of
    large hail and damaging winds. Dewpoints in the 30s and 40s F
    underneath a pocket of -17 to -20c 500 mb temperatures is
    contributing to 500-750 J/kg of MLCAPE across much of central
    Nevada. Favorable veering wind profiles to the east of the low
    center with deep-layer shear around 40 kts should be sufficient for
    a few organized storms, including supercells. The steep lapse rates
    in the mid-levels will promote hail growth within the strongest
    storms as well as the potential for damaging wind gusts through this
    evening. Trends will be monitored but a watch is not expected at
    this time.

    ..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/15/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oX_fv6QwG1ms4tyeI-OlLj2-20xb5qc3u9wlFgpb44yRvoy9nqj3RrsE605bqcKDYDIJWmWv$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 39131891 40511881 41201808 41521685 41201555 40471500
    39191545 38541660 38161721 38211791 38341815 39131891=20

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