• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0622

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 15 19:58:01 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 151957
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 151957=20
    OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-152200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0622
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0257 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

    Areas affected...East-Central/Southeast CO...Northeast NM...Far
    Northwest TX Panhandle...Far Western OK

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 151957Z - 152200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated, with an
    attendant increase in the threat for large hail and damaging wind
    gusts, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed this
    afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Cumulus has gradually deepen across the Front Range
    over the past few hours, with several instances of lightning
    observed over the last half hour. Expectation is for this deepening
    trend to persist, with eventual convective initiation across much of
    the region. The downstream air mass currently remains relatively
    cool, with temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to low 70s
    throughout much of the region. However, continued diurnal heating
    and mixing will likely push temperatures into the mid to upper 70s
    while simultaneously eroding the convective inhibition. This should
    result in a modestly buoyant air mass with by steep low and
    mid-level lapse rates. Additionally, low-level southeasterly flow
    veering to westerly in the mid-levels will result in moderate
    vertical shear.

    Storms currently building over the high terrain are forecast to move
    eastward into the then destabilized airmass, resulting in the
    potential for a few supercells. Hail will be possible early in the
    storm's lifecycle, with the threat transitioning to damaging wind
    gusts over time and with eastward extent. Slightly better low-level
    moisture is in place just east of the region in southwest KS and the
    eastern TX/OK Panhandle. Some guidance indicates this moisture may
    advect into southeast CO prior to the thunderstorms, potentially
    resulting in some tornado potential. Given the anticipated storm
    coverage, a watch will likely be needed this afternoon to cover the
    impending severe threat.

    ..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/15/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pg2vTxQV-UPh5-AV--mwLLMi3WLBgyITRMEWJqUUraFshRAkpDyq8hoYCCDZrAH97bupKxXG$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 39300535 40260482 40280352 39430257 38090215 35640228
    35170374 35310482 35630508 36250529 37550537 39300535=20



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