• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0621

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 15 19:54:58 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 151954
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 151954=20
    WYZ000-COZ000-UTZ000-152130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0621
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0254 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

    Areas affected...Northeastern Utah and southwestern Wyoming.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 151954Z - 152130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...High-based thunderstorms developing near an area of low
    pressure across northern Utah may produce some severe wind gusts or
    large hail. A weather watch is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...As of 1930 UTC, radar and satellite observations showed
    several thunderstorms developing across northern Utah and
    southwestern Wyoming ahead of an upper low across the Great Basin.
    Surface observations show modest low-level moisture (dewpoints in
    the mid to upper 30s F) have pooled along and north of a stalled
    frontal boundary along the southern Wyoming border. To the north of
    the front, SPC mesoanalysis indicates around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE has
    developed, owing to steep low and mid-level lapse rates near 9 C/km.
    Diffluent southwesterly flow ahead of the upper low will continue to
    slowly overspread the region and support between 25 and 35 kt of
    effective shear. A couple of strong/severe storms capable of severe
    hail, or more likely damaging outflow winds, will be possible into
    early evening. Additional storm development within thermally driven
    terrain circulations along the northern crest of the Uinta Range and
    across the higher terrain of western Wyoming appear possible with
    continued heating and the approaching mid-level diffluence. Low
    confidence in convective evolution/coverage exists, suggesting a
    weather watch is unlikely.

    ..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/15/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!stgvcwE8ZTCtvFAZVOWSMoP9tzviIsAjF5NDxVqQeSlyr7xlRfQlXOyosNbVLL1-i1B2YHFY$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC...

    LAT...LON 41451106 42381075 42791009 42990920 43000835 42830778
    42500741 41870738 41350761 40920902 40651102 41451106=20



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