• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0620

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 15 19:26:24 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 151926
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 151925=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-152200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0620
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0225 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

    Areas affected...East-Central/Southeast NM...TX Trans Pecos

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 151925Z - 152200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase over the
    next few hours, with some strong to severe storms probable. Primary
    severe threat will be strong damaging wind gusts, although a few
    instances of hail are also possible. General convective trends will
    be monitored closely for possible watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows increasing (both
    spatially and in depth) cumulus field across much of the southern
    High Plains. Deepest cumulus as well as highest number of lightning
    strikes have occurred from roughly TCC (in east-central NM)
    southward to west of FST (in the TX Trans Pecos). Surface
    observations within this corridor reveal temperatures in the mid to
    upper 80s and dewpoints in the low 50s. Mesoanalysis is estimating
    little to no convective inhibition remains. Given the airmass
    destabilization, persistent convergence along the lee trough coupled
    with orographic effects and increasing large-scale forcing for
    ascent, attendant to an approaching shortwave trough, will likely
    result in additional storm development throughout the afternoon.

    Deep boundary-layer mixing is ongoing and any storms that do develop
    will move into an environment very conducive for damaging wind
    gusts. Some hail is also possible, but modest deep-layer vertical
    shear and marginal buoyancy should restrain the overall hail
    potential. Given the likelihood for strong storm outflow, individual
    storm persistence will likely be limited but additional development
    along storm outflow appears probable.

    ..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/15/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!p0NbZ9NC9xERYbv98VfIuu2CGGCth1auZW9zg32RNB3HTYRoovt7OSeV-miR59e5DdypVT-5$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

    LAT...LON 33530516 34900475 34570332 31340271 30540304 30590410
    31970492 33530516=20



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