• OUTLOOK: Nws National Hur

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Sat May 15 09:52:00 2021
    ABNT20 KNHC 151128
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Sat May 15 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    Today, May 15th, marks the first day of routine issuance of the
    Atlantic basin Tropical Weather Outlook in 2021. This product
    describes significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential
    for tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. The
    Tropical Weather Outlook is issued from May 15 through November 30
    each year. The issuance times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM, 2
    AM, and 8 PM EDT. After the change to standard time in November,
    the issuance times are 1 AM, 7 AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST.

    A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide
    updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances
    of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical Weather Outlooks
    will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular
    Tropical Weather Outlooks.


    $$
    Forecaster Brown
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  • From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Sat May 15 19:56:00 2021
    ABNT20 KNHC 152321
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 PM EDT Sat May 15 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi
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  • From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Sun May 16 08:07:00 2021
    ABNT20 KNHC 161120
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Sun May 16 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Brown
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  • From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Mon May 17 14:20:00 2021
    ABNT20 KNHC 171714
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 PM EDT Mon May 17 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Brown
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  • From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Tue May 18 16:01:00 2021
    ABNT20 KNHC 181737
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    200 PM EDT Tue May 18 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Kong/Roth
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  • From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Wed May 19 16:56:00 2021
    ABNT20 KNHC 191724
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 PM EDT Wed May 19 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    A non-tropical low pressure system is forecast to develop a few
    hundred miles northeast of Bermuda by tomorrow afternoon and
    produce gale-force winds. The low is then forecast to move
    west-southwestward over warmer waters on Friday and could become a
    short-lived subtropical cyclone over the weekend to the northeast
    of Bermuda. The system is expected to move toward the north and
    northeast into a more hostile environment by Monday. For more
    information on this system, please see High Seas forecasts issued
    by the Ocean Prediction Center.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

    &&
    High Seas Forecasts for this system can be found under AWIPS header
    NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

    $$
    Forecaster Blake
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  • From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Thu May 20 16:17:00 2021
    ABNT20 KNHC 201754
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 PM EDT Thu May 20 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    A non-tropical low pressure system located about 650 miles east-
    northeast of Bermuda is now moving northward, and recent satellite
    wind data indicate that the system has gale-force winds. The low
    is expected to turn westward and west-southwestward over warmer
    waters tonight and Friday, and it will likely become a subtropical
    cyclone near and to the northeast of Bermuda on Friday. After that
    time, the system is expected to move toward the north and northeast
    into a more hostile environment by late Sunday into Monday. For more information on this developing low pressure area, please see High
    Seas forecasts issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center and
    forecast products, including a tropical storm watch, issued by the
    Bermuda Weather Service.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

    &&
    High Seas Forecasts for this system can be found under AWIPS header
    NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

    $$
    Forecaster Beven
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  • From Mike Powell@1:2320/105 to ALL on Fri May 21 18:07:00 2021
    ABNT20 KNHC 211808 CCA
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 PM EDT Fri May 21 2021

    Corrected to add mention of gale-force winds for the Atlantic low

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Showers and thunderstorms associated with a non-tropical low
    pressure area centered about 300 miles northeast of Bermuda have
    diminished somewhat over the past several hours, and the system has
    not yet acquired subtropical storm characteristics. However,
    the low is producing gale-force winds, and any increase in
    organization would result in advisories being initiated on the
    system later today or tonight as it moves westward to
    west-southwestward to the northeast of Bermuda. Subsequently,
    the low is forecast to move northeastward into a more hostile
    environment by Saturday night or Sunday. Additional information on
    this low pressure area can be found in High Seas forecasts issued by
    the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center and forecast products, including a
    tropical storm watch, issued by the Bermuda Weather Service.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

    Surface observations and recent satellite wind data indicate that a well-defined low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico has
    winds of 30-35 mph near and east of the center. The associated
    shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited, but any increase
    in this activity may result in the formation of a short-lived
    tropical depression or storm before the system moves inland over the northwestern Gulf coast tonight, and potential tropical cyclone
    advisories may be needed as early as this afternoon. Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions
    of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana through Saturday.
    Given the complete saturation of soils with ongoing river flooding
    along the Texas and Louisiana coastal areas, heavy rain could lead
    to flash, urban, and additional riverine flooding across this
    region. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding
    potential can be found in products issued by your local National
    Weather Service Forecast Office.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

    &&
    High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
    found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
    online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

    $$
    Forecaster Beven/Papin
    ---
    * SLMR 2.1a * "Buck McCoy?!? He was bigger than opium!"
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  • From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Sat May 22 10:06:00 2021
    ABNT20 KNHC 221136
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Sat May 22 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
    developed Subtropical Storm Ana, located about 180 miles northeast
    of Bermuda.

    Surface observations and radar data indicate that the area of low
    pressure previously over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico has moved
    inland over southeastern Texas. Therefore, tropical cyclone
    formation is not expected. However, the system could produce heavy
    rainfall over portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern
    Louisiana today. Given the complete saturation of soils with
    ongoing river flooding along the Texas and Louisiana coastal areas,
    these rains could lead to flash, urban, and additional riverine
    flooding across this region. Additional information on the rainfall
    and flooding potential can be found in products issued by your
    local National Weather Service Forecast Office.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

    &&
    Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Ana are issued under WMO
    header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
    Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Ana are issued under WMO
    header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

    $$
    Forecaster Beven
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  • From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Sun May 23 08:40:00 2021
    ABNT20 KNHC 231119
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Sun May 23 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Storm Ana, located a few hundred miles northeast of Bermuda.

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    &&
    Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Ana are issued under WMO
    header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
    Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Ana are issued under WMO
    header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

    $$
    Forecaster Pasch
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  • From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Sun May 23 18:37:00 2021
    ABNT20 KNHC 231742
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 PM EDT Sun May 23 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Storm Ana, located a few hundred miles northeast of Bermuda.

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Pasch
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  • From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Mon May 24 15:26:00 2021
    ABNT20 KNHC 241725
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 PM EDT Mon May 24 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Latto
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  • From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Tue May 25 19:45:00 2021
    ABNT20 KNHC 252309
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 PM EDT Tue May 25 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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  • From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Wed May 26 16:01:00 2021
    ABNT20 KNHC 261716
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 PM EDT Wed May 26 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Berg
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  • From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Thu May 27 16:56:00 2021
    ABNT20 KNHC 271715
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 PM EDT Thu May 27 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Brown
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  • From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Fri May 28 10:09:00 2021
    ABNT20 KNHC 281116
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Fri May 28 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Brown
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  • From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Mon May 31 09:42:00 2021
    ABNT20 KNHC 311116
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Mon May 31 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Stewart
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  • From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Tue Jun 1 16:46:00 2021
    ABNT20 KNHC 011723
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 PM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Papin/Stewart
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  • From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Wed Jun 2 15:44:00 2021
    ABNT20 KNHC 021717
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 PM EDT Wed Jun 2 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Papin/Stewart
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  • From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Thu Jun 3 15:45:00 2021
    ABNT20 KNHC 031714
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 PM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Papin/Stewart
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  • From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Fri Jun 4 10:42:00 2021
    ABNT20 KNHC 041125
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Papin/Blake
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  • From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Mon Jun 7 15:58:00 2021
    ABNT20 KNHC 071744
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the southwestern
    Caribbean Sea by Thursday or Friday. Some gradual development will
    be possible thereafter as the system moves slowly northwestward
    toward Central America.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Reinhart/Blake
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  • From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Tue Jun 8 15:29:00 2021
    ABNT20 KNHC 081741
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    A broad trough of low pressure is expected to develop over the
    southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days. Some
    gradual development will be possible thereafter while the system
    moves slowly northwestward toward Central America. Regardless of
    development, this system could produce heavy rainfall across
    northern Colombia and portions of Central America from Honduras
    southward later this week and into the weekend. See products from
    your local meteorological service for more information.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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  • From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Wed Jun 9 14:47:00 2021
    ABNT20 KNHC 091746
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 PM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    A broad trough of low pressure is expected to develop over the
    southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or two following the
    passage of a tropical wave. Significant development of this system
    appears unlikely as it drifts west-northwestward or northwestward
    toward Central America. Regardless of development, this system
    could produce heavy rainfall across northern Colombia and portions
    of Central America from Honduras southward late this week and over
    the weekend. See products from your local meteorological service
    for more information.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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  • From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Thu Jun 10 14:31:00 2021
    ABNT20 KNHC 101748
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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  • From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Sat Jun 19 10:32:00 2021
    ABNT20 KNHC 191150
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on
    recently designated Tropical Storm Claudette, located inland over
    southeastern Louisiana.

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi
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  • From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Sat Jun 19 18:15:00 2021
    ABNT20 KNHC 191736
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 PM EDT Sat Jun 19 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on
    Tropical Storm Claudette, located inland over
    southeastern Mississippi.

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi
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  • From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Sun Jun 20 07:56:00 2021
    ABNT20 KNHC 201109
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Depression Claudette, located inland over west-central Georgia.

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Stewart/Brown
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  • From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Sun Jun 20 19:18:00 2021
    ABNT20 KNHC 201701
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Depression Claudette, located inland over east-central Georgia.

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Stewart/Brown
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  • From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Mon Jun 21 15:48:00 2021
    ABNT20 KNHC 211717
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Storm Claudette, located over the western Atlantic about 150 miles east-northeast of the North Carolina Outer Banks.

    A tropical wave located about 750 miles east-southeast of the
    Windward Islands is producing disorganized showers and a few
    thunderstorms. Although shower activity has diminished some this
    afternoon, recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that
    the wave has become better defined since yesterday. Some additional
    development of this disturbance will be possible during the next
    couple of days before upper-level winds become less conducive for
    further organization by Thursday. The system is expected to move
    westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Stewart
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  • From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Tue Jun 22 17:51:00 2021
    ABNT20 KNHC 221738
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 PM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized associated with the
    tropical wave located about 500 miles east of the Windward Islands.
    In addition, recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate
    the wave has not become better defined since yesterday. This system
    is expected to move west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph and has a
    limited amount of time remaining for development before
    upper-level winds become less favorable by Thursday.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
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  • From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Wed Jun 23 13:54:00 2021
    ABNT20 KNHC 231736
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 PM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Recent visible satellite imagery indicates a weak area of low
    pressure has formed along a tropical wave located a few hundred
    miles east of the Windward Islands. However, shower and thunderstorm
    activity associated with this low is limited. Increasing upper-level
    winds are likely to prevent further development of this system as it
    moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

    A strong tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of
    Africa over the next day or so. Some gradual development of this
    system is possible by early next week while moving generally
    westward over the far eastern Atlantic.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
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  • From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Thu Jun 24 15:25:00 2021
    ABNT20 KNHC 241753
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 PM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    A strong tropical wave located over the far east Atlantic off the
    African coast is producing a broad area of showers and
    thunderstorms. As the system moves west-northwestward into the
    central Atlantic Ocean, conditions appear only marginally conducive
    for development due to relatively cool ocean temperatures. However,
    a small tropical depression could still form by early next week.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

    Recent satellite-derived surface winds indicate that the small area
    of low pressure located about 100 miles east-southeast of Barbados
    has degenerated into a trough. In addition, shower and thunderstorm
    activity has diminished with this system. Unfavorable upper-level
    winds are expected to prevent development of this disturbance while
    moving toward the west-northwest at about 10 mph. Even though
    development is not expected, the disturbance could produce increased
    shower activity and some gusty winds while moving across the Lesser
    Antilles over the next couple of days.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
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  • From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Fri Jun 25 16:20:00 2021
    ABNT20 KNHC 251732
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 PM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern Atlantic
    are associated with a strong tropical wave. Development, if any, of
    this system should be slow to occur during the next several days due
    to marginally conducive environmental conditions. This wave is
    expected to move westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph
    across the tropical eastern and central Atlantic through the middle
    of next week.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi/Papin
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  • From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Sat Jun 26 10:01:00 2021
    ABNT20 KNHC 261120
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    A tropical wave over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean is
    producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms well south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. The wave is expected to
    move westward at 15 to 20 mph through the weekend over marginally
    warm waters that are located in the central tropical Atlantic, and
    therefore any development of this system should be slow to occur.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Papin/Stewart
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  • From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Sat Jun 26 18:00:00 2021
    ABNT20 KNHC 261751
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 PM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    A tropical wave associated with a broad area of low pressure is
    located over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean about 400 miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Although shower and
    thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized, some slow
    development will be possible over the next several days while the
    disturbance moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

    A surface trough located a couple hundred miles south of Bermuda is
    producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
    Although surface pressures are currently high across the area, some
    additional slow development could occur while the system moves
    westward at 10 to 15 mph over the next few days.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Papin/Stewart
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  • From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Sun Jun 27 10:01:00 2021
    ABNT20 KNHC 271141
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave located over
    the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean more than 600 miles southwest of
    the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a small area of showers and
    thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible
    through the middle of the week while it moves a little faster
    toward the west and then west-northwest at about 20 mph.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

    A surface trough interacting with an upper-level low is producing a
    broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms about 600 miles east-southeast of the Georgia coast. Surface pressures remain high
    across the area, and significant development of this system is not
    anticipated due to dry air and unfavorable upper-level winds. The
    disturbance is expected to move westward today, and then
    west-northwestward at about 15 mph on Monday, reaching the coast of
    the southeastern United States by late Monday.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Stewart
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  • From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Sun Jun 27 17:53:00 2021
    ABNT20 KNHC 271732
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Satellite imagery and nearby buoy and ship observations indicate
    that a small low pressure system has formed about 500 miles
    east-southeast of the Georgia-South Carolina border. Surface
    pressures have begun to fall across the area, and showers and
    thunderstorms have recently become better organized. Some additional development of this system will be possible later today, and
    especially on Monday when the system will move across the warmer
    waters of the Gulf Stream, and a tropical depression could form
    before the system makes landfall along the southern U.S. coast. The
    low is expected to move westward today, and then west-northwestward
    at about 15 mph on Monday, reaching the coast of the southeastern
    United States by late Monday. An Air Force Reserve Unit
    reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
    Monday afternoon, if necessary.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

    An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave located over
    the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean more than 700 miles southwest of
    the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
    thunderstorms. Little, if any, development of this system is
    expected for the next couple of days, followed by some gradual
    development by Wednesday and continuing through the end of the week
    while it moves it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 20
    mph.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Stewart/Latto
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  • From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Mon Jun 28 19:52:00 2021
    ABNT20 KNHC 282333
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Storm Danny, located near the southern South Carolina coast.

    Disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms continue in
    association with a tropical wave located over the central Atlantic
    Ocean. Some slow development of this disturbance is possible later
    this week and this weekend while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, likely reaching the Lesser
    Antilles by Wednesday night.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

    &&
    Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Danny are issued under
    WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
    Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Four are issued under
    WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi
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  • From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Wed Jun 30 16:36:00 2021
    ABNT20 KNHC 301735
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 PM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure area
    and tropical wave located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the
    Windward Islands have become better organized since yesterday.
    However, recent satellite wind data indicates that the disturbance
    does not have a well-defined circulation. Environmental conditions
    appear generally favorable for continued development, and a tropical
    depression or storm is likely to form during the next day or two
    while the system moves west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph.
    Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress
    of this system, as advisories on a potential tropical cyclone,
    accompanied by tropical storm watches for portions of this area, are
    likely to be issued later today.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

    Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical
    wave located over the Lesser Antilles. This system has become less
    organized since yesterday, and significant development is no longer
    expected while it moves quickly westward across the Caribbean Sea.
    The wave should continue to produce locally heavy rains over
    portions of the Lesser Antilles through tonight.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Beven
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