• Indian-N: TC Tauktae W005

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Sat May 15 09:52:00 2021
    WTIO31 PGTW 150900
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 005//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 005
    01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
    WARNING POSITION:
    150600Z --- NEAR 13.5N 73.3E
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
    POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 73.3E
    ---
    FORECASTS:
    12 HRS, VALID AT:
    151800Z --- 14.8N 72.9E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
    24 HRS, VALID AT:
    160600Z --- 15.9N 72.3E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
    36 HRS, VALID AT:
    161800Z --- 17.2N 71.1E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
    48 HRS, VALID AT:
    170600Z --- 18.5N 70.3E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
    72 HRS, VALID AT:
    180600Z --- 21.4N 69.5E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
    LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
    96 HRS, VALID AT:
    190600Z --- 23.6N 70.1E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
    120 HRS, VALID AT:
    200600Z --- 25.8N 72.0E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
    REMARKS:
    150900Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 72.3E.
    15MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
    766 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
    NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
    MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
    OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
    POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BULLSEYE PASS
    FROM A 150419Z ASCAT METOP-B IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
    ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS, USING THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGE AND THE
    ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF 57 KNOTS AND SATELLITE
    CONSENSUS OF 55KTS; AND HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PGTW DVORAK
    ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES VERY
    FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-
    20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (31C) SST VALUES. TC 01A IS
    TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST. TC 01A IS FORECAST
    TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 BEFORE
    RECURVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD NEAR TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
    IS IN POOR AGREEMENT AFTER TAU 48, WITH INCREASING SPREAD FROM 170NM
    AT TAU 48, INCREASING TO WELL OVER 600NM BY TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96,
    THE MODELS FURTHER DIVERGE WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE
    TIMING OF THE RECURVATURE AROUND THE STR. DUE TO THE EXCELLENT
    ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, TC 01A IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY
    AFTER TAU 24 WITH A PEAK OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 72 JUST BEFORE MAKING
    LANDFALL NEAR PORBANDAR, INDIA. STEADY WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE
    SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PAKISTAN/INDIA BORDER WITH RAPID WEAKENING
    AFTER THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
    FORECAST IS MODERATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS
    21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.//
    NNNN
    --- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)