• Pacific-NW: TD03 Final

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Sat May 15 09:51:00 2021
    WTPN31 PGTW 142100
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 009
    01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
    WARNING POSITION:
    141800Z --- NEAR 8.4N 121.7E
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
    POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    REPEAT POSIT: 8.4N 121.7E
    ---
    FORECASTS:
    12 HRS, VALID AT:
    150600Z --- 9.2N 118.9E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
    24 HRS, VALID AT:
    151800Z --- 10.1N 116.4E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
    REMARKS:
    142100Z POSITION NEAR 8.6N 121.0E.
    14MAY21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
    374 NM SOUTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
    AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
    SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAK, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER A
    POORLY ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
    INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE (20 KNOTS) WESTERLY
    VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK OUTFLOW. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
    REVEALS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED
    OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR PALAWAN
    ISLAND. TD 03W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
    PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED
    TO THE NORTH. TD 03W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
    THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR
    POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
    AGREEMENT. TD 03W WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 12 DUE TO INCREASING VWS (20-
    25 KNOTS) AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
    AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
    SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
    BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
    WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 8 FEET.//
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