• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0617

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 15 02:43:21 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 150243
    SPC MCD 150242=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0617
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0942 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

    Areas affected...for parts of southwest and central KS

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 170...

    Valid 150242Z - 150345Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 170

    SUMMARY...The hail risk will decrease considerably as storm
    morphology and continued cold pool coalescence occur over the next
    hour across parts of central into southwest KS. The risk for severe
    gusts (possibly significant-- 60-80 mph) will probably increase.

    DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows gradual upscale growth of a cluster
    of storms over west-central into central KS during the past 30-60
    minutes. The LLJ continues to intensify this evening with 50 kt
    sampled around 0.5 km AGL. The steep 700-500 mb lapse rate sampled
    by the 7 pm CDT Dodge City raob will favor strong downdrafts,
    especially with the more precip-loaded cores. Given the expected
    upscale growth to occur during the 930-1030 pm CDT period, the
    potential for gusts will probably maximize during this timeframe as
    the still-vigorous cores transition to a more outflow-dominant
    morphology. The risk for severe gusts will eventually push south of
    US 50 by 1130 pm CDT as the cold pool pushes southeast.

    ..Smith.. 05/15/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vdwHemmn_JHh2mv-NMb1EpLiyviijvdBUBaYY5W-83RX7TEa62L6W4ZGw29BLC5WfLsnncYn$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 37849869 37689921 38120035 38480021 38499953 38229876

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