• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0616

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 15 01:45:52 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 150145
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 150145=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-150315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0616
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0845 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

    Areas affected...TX Panhandle into the TX South Plains

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 169...

    Valid 150145Z - 150315Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 169
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A gradual decrease in the severe threat is expected with
    time this evening, but sporadic strong wind gusts and hail remain
    possible over the next 1-2 hours.

    DISCUSSION...At 0130Z, a strong thunderstorm is ongoing northwest of
    Lubbock, with an eastward-moving storm cluster noted further north
    into portions of the central/eastern TX Panhandle. Convection
    approaching the eastern portion of WW 169 is expected to gradually
    weaken with time, as it moves into an environment characterized by
    increasing SBCINH. However, isolated severe wind gusts will remain
    possible for the next 1-2 hours as the storm cluster and related
    cold pool move eastward. The storm on the tail end of the line
    northwest of Lubbock will remain in a somewhat more favorable
    environment (with weaker SBCINH) for the next hour or so, and may
    remain capable of hail and strong wind gusts as it nears the
    southern edge of WW 169.=20

    Downstream watch issuance to the east of WW 169 is not currently
    anticipated, given the expected weakening trend, though strong wind
    gusts associated with dying convection/heatburst activity may spread
    into the far eastern TX Panhandle and western OK later this evening.

    ..Dean.. 05/15/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uyf_IYw2Oofji5DSUfQFtwq_uGSEnuORvc1jMrC6iHsXOn-OfaPB4ItmNFQmNFzS-69J8sWo$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

    LAT...LON 34030290 34880186 35580137 36110132 36360095 36500009
    35719971 34729975 33989988 33530166 33820268 34030290=20



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