• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0615

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 15 00:11:21 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 150011
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 150010=20
    KSZ000-150215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0615
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0710 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

    Areas affected...west-central KS

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 170...

    Valid 150010Z - 150215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 170
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A supercell or two in the northeast part of WW 170 will
    move slowly to the south-southeast. Hail and wind are the primary
    risks. Eventual thunderstorm outflow consolidation will focus the
    risk for severe gusts over parts of west-central KS in the 0200-0330
    UTC period.

    DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows several clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of northwest KS into eastern CO, and
    farther south into extreme southeast CO moving into southwest KS as
    of 0000 UTC. A strengthening LLJ over the next 2 hours will further
    aid in storm activity consolidating over western KS as it moves into
    a more moisture-rich airmass with mid-upper 50s deg F dewpoints.=20
    Steep lapse rates evident on the 0000 UTC Dodge City raob (7.8 deg
    C/km in the 700-500 mb layer) will aid in storm intensity, despite
    gradual cooling in the boundary layer this evening. Large hail and
    severe gusts may accompany the more discrete activity over the
    northeast portion of WW 170. Otherwise, severe gusts (60-75 mph)
    will become the primary concern this evening over west-central KS.

    ..Smith.. 05/15/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vTEKaUNquriqiCwtxGPSkev2_UMhMUgL7ovQDQngGOnIKtL47f1hMLHGyH5uJbvyiqGnKU3G$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...

    LAT...LON 39520120 39650026 39389933 38869919 38179964 38060068
    38560141 39520120=20



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