• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0614

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 14 23:26:48 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 142326
    SPC MCD 142326=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0614
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0626 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

    Areas affected...southwest KS

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 170...

    Valid 142326Z - 150130Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 170

    SUMMARY...Scattered severe gusts (60-75 mph) appear increasingly
    likely over the next couple of hours across parts of southwest KS
    (0030 to 0200 UTC). Expecting the coverage and intensity of severe
    gusts to maximize during this timeframe.

    DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a broken band of discrete storms
    aligned north to south along a dryline from extreme southeast CO
    southward into the western counties of the TX Panhandle. The storms
    over southeast CO/western OK Panhandle are beginning to move into a
    more moist environment as the activity pushes eastward. Surface
    analysis shows dewpoints near 50 deg F near the CO/KS border and
    into the middle 50s one tier of counties farther east (i.e., Kearny,
    Grant, Stevens counties). As a result of both strong heating and
    the aforementioned well mixed but adequate boundary layer moisture,
    upwards of 2500 J/kg MLCAPE is noted on modified RAP forecast
    soundings (slightly more unstable than current SPC Mesoanalysis
    fields). The steep low-level lapse rates and the 9 deg C/km 700-500
    mb lapse rates, will enable efficient downdrafts in the form of
    strong to severe gusts. Severe gusts ranging from 60-75 mph are
    expected as the activity over southeast CO/western OK Panhandle
    gradually moves into southwest KS during the next couple of hours.

    ..Smith.. 05/14/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vnAfHG9Wb9Zk62NHmtrtj5siJTTKk7ZleeZeEvlk748FRhswy5j_9WpLZvFXtOeywSVvRgso$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 38010197 38340165 38390115 38100083 37370070 37080088
    37000141 37110177 38010197=20

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