• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0613

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 14 23:06:50 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 142306
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142306=20
    TXZ000-150030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0613
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0606 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

    Areas affected...TX Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 169...

    Valid 142306Z - 150030Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 169
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe wind threat should increase between now and 0030Z,
    as ongoing strong storms consolidate and move eastward. A few
    significant gusts (65 kt or greater) will be possible.

    DISCUSSION...At 23Z, numerous strong/potentially severe storms are
    ongoing across the western TX Panhandle. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg
    and effective shear of 30-40 kt will continue to support organized
    structures, with a short-term risk of locally severe downbursts and
    perhaps some hail.=20

    With numerous strong storms ongoing upstream of a relatively warm
    and well-mixed environment, some upscale growth is expected within
    the next hour as cold pools begin to consolidate. As this occurs, a
    swath of potentially more widespread severe wind gusts could develop
    into the central TX Panhandle between now and 0030Z, in conjunction
    with an eastward-moving cluster that may evolve into a loosely
    organized MCS. A few significant (65 kt or greater) gusts will be
    possible depending on how well any upscale growth can organize.

    ..Dean.. 05/14/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!t3fwRKPFNRoHQRpdmssbmFSuGLhKPPud-dSEu0VtAN1MBprXR143KILXvUJqP7UcYxh0hA-L$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

    LAT...LON 34360276 35060261 35730241 35760153 35340131 34580137
    34120156 33970223 34070274 34360276=20



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