• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0612

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 14 22:18:20 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 142218
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142217=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-142345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0612
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0517 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

    Areas affected...Southeast NM...West TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 142217Z - 142345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms capable of localized strong
    wind gusts and perhaps some hail will be possible into early
    evening.

    DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across
    portions of southeast NM into west TX as of 2215Z. Strong heating
    and relatively steep midlevel lapse rates are supporting MLCAPE of
    generally 500-1000 J/kg, while low-level southeasterly flow veering
    to modest westerlies aloft is resulting in effective shear of 30-35
    kt across the region, which will support a few strong multicells and
    perhaps a transient supercell with the most intense updrafts. While
    large-scale ascent is generally weak across the region, continued
    development and intensification will be possible near terrain-driven circulations and in the vicinity of a weak surface trough across
    southeast NM.=20

    The most likely hazard is isolated severe gusts, with large temperature/dewpoint spreads and DCAPE across the region, though
    some instances of hail will also be possible given steep midlevel
    lapse rates. The threat will likely persist into the early evening
    before diminishing due to the onset of diurnal
    cooling/stabilization.

    ..Dean/Grams.. 05/14/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!omrE04go1j8evbSZR9wipxVIGiLuNz028_ulBbyJt2azSR6O9aFAyrHpGbmrsPfEUDbgx1UK$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

    LAT...LON 30050470 30480470 32420497 33240485 33240423 33150341
    32280309 31410295 30760293 29920307 28990317 29130371
    29580449 30000473 30050470=20



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