• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0611

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 14 21:59:21 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 142159
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142158=20
    MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-142330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0611
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0458 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

    Areas affected...Eastern SD...Southwest MN...Extreme northwest IA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 142158Z - 142330Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong thunderstorms are possible into early
    evening, with some threat of hail and strong wind gusts.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms has recently developed
    across extreme west-central MN, near a weak surface low over
    northeast SD, with other scattered storms trying to develop
    southwestward across eastern SD along a surface trough. While
    low-level moisture is generally limited, afternoon heating and
    relatively cold temperatures aloft (around -20C) are supporting
    SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, per recent objective mesoanalyses. Modest west-northwesterly midlevel flow is supporting 25-35 kt of effective
    shear, which will support the potential for organized multicells or
    perhaps a supercell with any sustained convection. The primary
    threat will likely be hail, though isolated strong wind gusts will
    also be possible in areas where stronger boundary-layer
    heating/mixing has occurred.

    ..Dean/Grams.. 05/14/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vabHcREE_owKJDqE7ss3A9JsjMKBad0nXkjg7N9wTPimwAumJLFL7ma_9M-VToF7PsK5-6XA$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...

    LAT...LON 43809816 44829751 45769700 46149670 46279596 46149548
    45279533 43949584 42869633 42749702 42969758 43369851
    43629847 43809816=20



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