• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0610

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 14 20:54:21 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 142054
    SPC MCD 142054=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0610
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0354 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

    Areas affected...western kansas and far southwest Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 142054Z - 142230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...A gradual increase in the threat of damaging winds and
    severe hail is expected late this afternoon and into this evening
    across far eastern Colorado and western Kansas. A weather watch may
    be needed.

    DISCUSSION...High-based thunderstorms ongoing east of the Denver
    Metro are expected to continue eastward towards extreme eastern
    Colorado and western Kansas over the next few hours. Additional
    storm development in northeastern Colorado and southern Nebraska
    appears likely, as lift from weak upslope flow and an upstream
    shortwave trough begin to move across the High Plains. Surface
    observations show increasing moisture with eastward extent across
    western Kansas, where mid to upper 50s F dewpoints reside. Continued
    low-level moisture advection from southeasterly winds will increase
    surface dewpoints to near 60 F this evening, contributing to
    1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Effective shear of 30-40 kts should be
    sufficient to organize updrafts into line segments and clusters,
    with eventual upscale growth into an MCS expected. Damaging wind
    gusts and severe hail appear to be the primary threats given steep
    lapse-rates through the low and mid levels. A weather watch may be
    needed as early as 22-23z, though some uncertainty in convective
    evolution remains given the slow organization of storms thus far.

    ..Lyons/Kerr.. 05/14/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oZeBKl3iz_Lm2pJzaAHf-4aV3zg1MmleabHQknF4yFKz3JJf_xMjfTEsIjJgtlPj38_w3IU3$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 38160194 38710206 39450214 39860213 40280203 40300083
    40140049 39860022 39269988 38699982 38070006 37730051
    37750139 38160194=20

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