• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0609

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 14 19:57:19 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 141957
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 141956=20
    COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-142200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0609
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0256 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

    Areas affected...Eastern Colorado...southeast Wyoming...and far
    western Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 141956Z - 142200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development along the Front Range
    may pose a risk for isolated damaging wind gusts over the next
    several hours. A greater severe threat may evolve later this
    afternoon/early this evening as storms move toward eastern Colorado.
    A weather watch is unlikely in the next couple of hours.

    DISCUSSION...As of 1930 UTC, visible satellite showed several areas
    of high-based convection and weak thunderstorms from the southern
    Laramie Range across eastern Wyoming into north-central Colorado.
    Additional convective development appears likely ahead of a weak
    shortwave trough within northwest flow across the central Rockies.
    Surface observations showed weak upslope flow was occurring across
    much of the central High Plains with 40s and 50s F dewpoints slowly
    advancing westward. SPC Mesoanalysis and hi-res model sounding
    trends suggest that convection will continue to strengthen as
    afternoon heating erodes remaining MLCINH and the atmosphere
    gradually destabilizes. 25-35 kts of effective shear should support
    only modest storm organization in the form of multi-cell clusters
    through this afternoon. Large temperature/dew point spreads of 20-30
    degrees F suggest the primary threat with any stronger thunderstorms
    will be damaging wind gusts, though small hail will also be possible
    given steep mid-level lapse rates around 9 C/km.

    As storm development continues later this afternoon and early this
    evening, consolidating outflow/deeper cold pools may support a
    gradual increase in convective coverage/organization as storms
    approach far eastern Colorado and western Kansas. Hi-res guidance
    hints at the development of an MCS or storm cluster capable of
    producing a greater damaging wind threat as storms begin to
    encounter greater buoyancy from increasing boundary-layer moisture
    (dewpoints 50-60 F). Details on convective evolution remain scant,
    but a more focused corridor for damaging wind potential, requiring a
    weather watch, may evolve out of the ongoing storms.

    ..Lyons/Kerr.. 05/14/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pBYKMB3-gElS1G7aj-xYElT6uNmcZkH8mUWPCOTHULxV3GfF2bBaF3tunlfp6Hsh29mo4HaQ$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 40870352 40440313 40200260 40050230 39680226 39240221
    38930234 38770271 38660325 38660383 38840445 39430493
    40150496 40680503 41080531 41350562 41750547 41890510
    41760457 41360399 40870352=20



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