Mesoscale Discussion 0609
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021
Areas affected...Eastern Colorado...southeast Wyoming...and far
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 141956Z - 142200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development along the Front Range
may pose a risk for isolated damaging wind gusts over the next
several hours. A greater severe threat may evolve later this
afternoon/early this evening as storms move toward eastern Colorado.
A weather watch is unlikely in the next couple of hours.
DISCUSSION...As of 1930 UTC, visible satellite showed several areas
of high-based convection and weak thunderstorms from the southern
Laramie Range across eastern Wyoming into north-central Colorado.
Additional convective development appears likely ahead of a weak
shortwave trough within northwest flow across the central Rockies.
Surface observations showed weak upslope flow was occurring across
much of the central High Plains with 40s and 50s F dewpoints slowly
advancing westward. SPC Mesoanalysis and hi-res model sounding
trends suggest that convection will continue to strengthen as
afternoon heating erodes remaining MLCINH and the atmosphere
gradually destabilizes. 25-35 kts of effective shear should support
only modest storm organization in the form of multi-cell clusters
through this afternoon. Large temperature/dew point spreads of 20-30
degrees F suggest the primary threat with any stronger thunderstorms
will be damaging wind gusts, though small hail will also be possible
given steep mid-level lapse rates around 9 C/km.
As storm development continues later this afternoon and early this
evening, consolidating outflow/deeper cold pools may support a
gradual increase in convective coverage/organization as storms
approach far eastern Colorado and western Kansas. Hi-res guidance
hints at the development of an MCS or storm cluster capable of
producing a greater damaging wind threat as storms begin to
encounter greater buoyancy from increasing boundary-layer moisture
(dewpoints 50-60 F). Details on convective evolution remain scant,
but a more focused corridor for damaging wind potential, requiring a
weather watch, may evolve out of the ongoing storms.
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