• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0607

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 13 23:09:12 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 132309
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132308=20
    NEZ000-KSZ000-140115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0607
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0608 PM CDT Thu May 13 2021

    Areas affected...southwest NE and northwest KS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 132308Z - 140115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Swaths of large hail accompanying two supercells will
    likely extend south-southeast through 01 UTC. Localized severe
    gusts may also occur.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar/satellite imagery shows two supercells
    over the central High Plains within an environment featuring steep
    low and mid-level lapse rates ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough.
    Latest Warn-on-Forecast suggests these storms will move
    south-southeast and probably intensify as the updrafts encounter
    slightly greater low-level moisture. However, observed storm motion
    and forecast Bunkers motion shows a more southward-component to
    motion than WoFs. Consequently, hail production will likely
    increase over the next hour and possibly maximize between 2330 UTC
    and 0100 UTC. Expecting hail potential to be highest with the storm
    over northwest KS (1.0 to 2.0 inches in diameter) with slightly
    lower overall hail growth potential with the storm west of North
    Platte.

    ..Smith/Grams.. 05/13/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rXNYxr9MqSkrQtXye_kcwfa6kglupe553oakJUUGSyrQRGo2OHlLqbihbgMEYxXoIuu_hzEd$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...

    LAT...LON 40000199 41580165 40540056 39180120 39170194 40000199=20



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