• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0606

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 13 21:49:11 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 132149
    SPC MCD 132148=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0606
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0448 PM CDT Thu May 13 2021

    Areas affected...southwest NE...far northwest KS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 132148Z - 132345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated risk for large hail and localized severe gusts
    may accompany the stronger storms that manage to develop late this
    afternoon into the evening. Storm coverage and severe-producing
    storms will likely remain too isolated to warrant a severe
    thunderstorm watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery late this afternoon shows a
    cluster of strong to severe storms over the western part of the NE
    Sandhills and another discrete storm near the NE/CO/KS border.=20
    Ample heating has occurred downstream/southeast of the ongoing
    activity (as of 2140 UTC) with mid 70s deg F temperatures. Forecast
    soundings show rather cool mid-level temperatures (-17 deg C at 500
    mb), which is resulting in 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE despite relatively
    marginal boundary layer moisture (mid-upper 40s deg F dewpoints).=20
    As a mid-level shortwave trough over the northern High Plains/Black
    Hills vicinity continues to approach the region this evening,
    support for additional storms developing or maintaining their vigor
    into the early evening hours seems plausible. The strong veering
    flow with height increasing to 80 kt at 250 mb will aid in storm
    venting and possibly hail production considering the long, straight
    hodographs and cool mid-level temperatures. Given the current
    forecast expectation for limited storm development south of the NE
    Sandhills thunderstorm cluster, a severe thunderstorm watch will
    likely not be needed farther south over northwest KS and adjacent
    parts of NE this evening.

    ..Smith/Grams.. 05/13/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rB1mDQL9_8XPWZcDWt-a21Iryik44P16ou1KG28otewNlwxOwPeHWKpjrZ7n60fARNIe8hzP$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 40330216 40610135 40499997 39509995 39350084 39600189

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