• Indian: I92A Formation Al

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Thu May 13 16:45:00 2021
    WTIO21 PGTW 131200
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92A)//
    RMKS/
    1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
    125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.8N 70.5E TO 13.1N 73.6E
    WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
    ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
    WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
    IMAGERY AT 131130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
    NEAR 9.8N 71.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10
    KNOTS.
    2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
    NEAR 11.8N 66.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 71.0E, APPROXIMATELY 530
    NM SOUTH OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
    (MSI) AND A 130826Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AREA
    OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
    INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST RADIAL
    OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (30-
    31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
    THAT INVEST 92A WILL CONSOLIDATE QUICKLY AND INTENSIFY AS IT TURNS
    NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
    ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
    ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
    3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
    141200Z.//
    NNNN
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