• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0604

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed May 12 16:30:34 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 121630
    SPC MCD 121630=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0604
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1130 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021

    Areas affected...Southern Georgia and north Florida

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 168...

    Valid 121630Z - 121830Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 168

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat remains possible across WW 168
    through the early afternoon hours. Damaging winds will remain the
    primary concern.

    DISCUSSION...The line of storms that progressed through the AL/GA/FL
    region continues to move into south-central GA, but has undergone
    considerable weakening over the past 2 hours with warming cloud tops
    and a drop-off in lightning noted. To the southwest across the FL
    Panhandle, new convection continues to develop along an outflow
    boundary, though these cells have exhibited transient behavior -
    likely due to somewhat weak forcing for ascent. Ahead of this
    activity across north FL and southern/southeast GA, temperatures
    continue to warm into the low 80s with SBCAPE increasing as
    inhibition gradually erodes. Increasing instability coupled with
    adequate deep-layer shear over the region may support additional
    storms and/or re-intensification of ongoing convection across north
    FL and southeast GA that may support a damaging wind (and perhaps
    marginally severe hail) threat through early afternoon. However,
    considerable uncertainty remains due to weak low-level flow and
    generally weak forcing for ascent. A downstream watch is still not
    anticipated, but trends will continue to be monitored.

    ..Moore.. 05/12/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!seYQJdF6i-T3WofNNOenN8AGzvsE15Nltz8pi0oKCC1L9-OxVauMWjgUcDBZ4ETsMYFmg0ty$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 30238589 31188438 31708357 31648246 31398139 30748105
    30158113 29778175 29628283 29728385 29748446 29488502
    29578542 29858587 30238589=20

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