• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0603

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed May 12 14:18:02 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 121417
    SPC MCD 121417=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0603
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0917 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021

    Areas affected...The Florida Panhandle and southwest Georgia

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 168...

    Valid 121417Z - 121615Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 168

    SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds remain possible with the ongoing
    line of storms across WW 168, but a gradual weakening trend is
    expected through early afternoon. Additional convection is possible
    along the FL coast and across south-central GA later today. While
    confidence is low, trends will be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...An organized line of storms continues to move
    east/northeastward across the FL Panhandle and into southwest GA,
    but has produced little in the way of measured wind gusts over the
    past hour with no wind damage recently reported. While this line
    continues to display reasonable organization in reflectivity and
    velocity structure with no noticeable cloud top warming, it is
    moving into a less favorable thermodynamic environment across
    southern GA where MUCAPE values are between 250-500 J/kg - possibly
    due to cooler low-level temperatures. While deep-layer shear between
    30-40 knots remains supportive for maintaining the line, weak
    low-level flow sampled by regional VWPs suggests a near-term cold
    pool intensification is unlikely. The general expectation is that
    this line will continue to pose a threat for isolated damaging wind
    gusts across north FL and southwest GA for the next 1-2 hours. It is
    possible that re-intensification can occur early this afternoon once
    daytime heating augments low-level instability, but increasing cloud
    cover introduces uncertainty into this scenario. Additional
    convection is possible along the remnant outflow boundary over the
    FL coast where better instability and supportive deep-layer shear
    are noted. However, it is unclear whether forcing for ascent along
    the boundary will be sufficient for a robust severe threat. A
    downstream watch is not currently anticipated, but trends will
    continue to be monitored through the late morning.

    ..Moore.. 05/12/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!q5bNWTSvw0eFe4V_kYlF33O_hwZQGl6mgTXIB6ezGgZiCyY5OkUNcn4NGpi4Rzzj7gbew4HM$=
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    LAT...LON 31568533 31918486 32068395 32018314 31798246 31058232
    30628239 30168319 29958385 29708459 29478512 29878567
    30268586 30978563 31568533=20

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