• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0602

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed May 12 11:44:00 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 121143
    SPC MCD 121143=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0602
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0643 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021

    Areas affected...far southern Alabama into the Florida Panhandle and
    a portion of far southwestern Georgia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 121143Z - 121345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue moving across far southern
    Alabama and the Florida Panhandle this morning, where a few damaging
    wind gusts may occur. A watch may be needed.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a semi-continuous band of
    thunderstorms from far southern Alabama (Covington County) into
    western portions of the Florida Panhandle and offshore into the
    north-central Gulf of Mexico, moving eastward at 35 kt. The storms
    are ongoing just ahead of a weak surface cold front, and in advance
    of a compact vort max crossing the lower Mississippi Valley area at
    this time.

    While rather weak low-level flow is observed across the region,
    amply strong mid-level westerlies are allowing some organization to
    occur with the band, which has intensified over the past hour.=20
    However, while sufficient elevated CAPE exists for storms to
    persist, dewpoints generally in the low to mid 60s are indicative of
    a roughly 100mb deep surface-based stable layer, which will likely
    tend to limit any more widespread potential for damaging winds.=20
    Still, where locally/transiently intense updrafts occur, a few
    stronger gusts may penetrate to the surface, capable of producing
    minor wind damage.=20=20

    With the downstream low-level airmass across the Panhandle similarly
    stable, extent of wind potential should remain limited. Still, we
    will continue to monitor the region for any signs of further
    organization, which could warrant issuance of a small WW.

    ..Goss/Guyer.. 05/12/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qDAO0q0vNVhCJxeJt9uu3K9YH_w0GfT3HgJ0r07USIZ-uqToLleZzlDGY3c8-Qu-Op40UvoQ$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 30138732 31058672 31358610 31268532 31058497 30848453
    30188413 29658420 29288478 29558574 29898639 30138732=20

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