Mesoscale Discussion 0601
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CDT Wed May 12 2021
Areas affected...Deep South Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 167...
Valid 120641Z - 120815Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 167
SUMMARY...Wind gusts up to 70 MPH will be possible over the next
hour or so across the Rio Grande Valley area of Deep South Texas.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a well-organized cluster of
storms moving east-southeastward at 30 kt, now moving into southern
Cameron County. A mesolow-type circulation is evident over
northeastern Hidalgo County, with the main surge of the convection
moving along the Rio Grande. WSR-88D data from KBRO shows outflow
winds in excess of 60 kt at around 2000 feet ARL, with the
convection moving southeast at roughly 30 kt. Given the
southeasterly low-level inflow, and mixed-layer CAPE near 2500 J/kg
across this region per objective analysis, this cluster should
remain well-organized until moving offshore over the next hour or
so. As such, strong/potentially damaging winds will likely affect
the Brownsville area over the next 30 to 45 minutes.
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