• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0599

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed May 12 01:34:31 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 120134
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 120133=20
    LAZ000-TXZ000-120300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0599
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0833 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

    Areas affected...Southern Louisiana and far southeast Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 166...

    Valid 120133Z - 120300Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 166
    continues.

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe weather threat will continue overnight.
    Isolated damaging wind will be the primary threat.

    DISCUSSION...Widespread storms have developed across southern
    Louisiana along an instability gradient with a very moist low-level
    airmass being transported northward into the region. The 00Z KLCH
    RAOB sampled this rich low-level environment well with a mean mixing
    ratio of 16.5 g/kg. This low-level moisture provides a broad
    reservoir of unstable air with MUCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg per 00Z
    KLCH RAOB. This moist airmass has limited the ability for cold pool
    development and thus the line of storms entering western Louisiana
    has struggled to accelerate eastward and produce much wind damage.
    The expansive storm development has limited discrete development and
    the potential for severe hail, especially given the tropical airmass
    present in the region. Therefore, expect widespread storms to
    continue overnight, but expect the severe threat to be muted with
    water-loaded downdrafts the primary mechanism for isolated damaging
    wind gusts. Therefore, no downstream watch is anticipated at this
    time.

    ..Bentley/Hart.. 05/12/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vd1LSf4C43d3KDBN_Wt7dbq-QznAbni3GJTXcDUHz3nuAU-VPuJa-khvPFtU1JdpGrX4-eTO$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX...

    LAT...LON 30159447 30859365 30829212 30269056 29749043 29559064
    29409129 29499217 29689306 29729345 29629399 29519438
    30159447=20



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