• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0597

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 11 23:36:58 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 112336
    SPC MCD 112336=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0597
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0636 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

    Areas affected...Southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 166...

    Valid 112336Z - 120100Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 166

    SUMMARY...An organized line of storms is expected to maintain
    intensity as it moves across southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana
    over the past few hours. Large hail and damaging winds will be the
    primary threat.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have grown upscale into an organized line over
    the past hour. Slow forward progression and mostly line parallel
    low-level flow combined with weak modest DCAPE around 500 J/kg all
    suggest the threat for widespread damaging winds is likely limited.
    However, isolated wind damage where cores collapse may be possible.
    In addition, isolated large hail has been observed with this
    convection. The greater hail threat may be with supercells which
    form ahead of the line and especially any left-split supercells such
    as the one currently in Tyler county Texas at 2330Z. Line embedded
    supercells and supercells forming ahead of this line may pose a
    threat for a tornado or two given 0-1 SRH around 150 m2/s2 per KLCH
    VWP. However, 2-3 km flow has weakened over the past hour which
    likely limits a greater tornado threat.

    ..Bentley.. 05/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!t8p44UOv4R3I3yJz99zu94dxZd4oq0KKyZ3yRTPNBAAPIRKtDT2Jlgon1oTu-hMtecXUoihu$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 31329443 31229343 30989293 30529295 30269309 30139432
    30169468 30369521 31329443=20

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