Mesoscale Discussion 0597
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021
Areas affected...Southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 166...
Valid 112336Z - 120100Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 166
SUMMARY...An organized line of storms is expected to maintain
intensity as it moves across southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana
over the past few hours. Large hail and damaging winds will be the
DISCUSSION...Storms have grown upscale into an organized line over
the past hour. Slow forward progression and mostly line parallel
low-level flow combined with weak modest DCAPE around 500 J/kg all
suggest the threat for widespread damaging winds is likely limited.
However, isolated wind damage where cores collapse may be possible.
In addition, isolated large hail has been observed with this
convection. The greater hail threat may be with supercells which
form ahead of the line and especially any left-split supercells such
as the one currently in Tyler county Texas at 2330Z. Line embedded
supercells and supercells forming ahead of this line may pose a
threat for a tornado or two given 0-1 SRH around 150 m2/s2 per KLCH
VWP. However, 2-3 km flow has weakened over the past hour which
likely limits a greater tornado threat.
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