• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0596

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 11 22:24:27 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 112224
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 112223=20
    TXZ000-120030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0596
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0523 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

    Areas affected...Middle Texas Coast

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 165...

    Valid 112223Z - 120030Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 165
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A potential for large hail and wind damage will continue
    across the eastern part of WW 165. The severe threat may affect
    areas to the east of the watch across the middle Texas Coast later
    this evening, where new watch issuance or a watch extension may be
    needed.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from San Antonio shows two
    supercell thunderstorms ongoing to the south of the San Antonio
    Metro. These storms are located just to the northwest of a pocket of
    strong instability with the RAP estimating MLCAPE in the 3500 to
    4000 J/kg range. These storms are being supported by a subtle
    shortwave trough moving through south-central Texas, evident on
    water vapor imagery. RAP forecast soundings near San Antonio early
    this evening have 0-6 km shear near 40 kt with 700-500 mb lapse
    rates around 7.0 C/km. This will be favorable for large hail with
    the stronger updraft cores. A wind damage threat will also be
    likely. The severe threat may affect areas to the east of the watch
    later this evening, especially if the right-moving supercell in the
    southeast part of WW 165 can remain intact as it approaches the
    eastern edge of the ongoing watch.

    ..Broyles.. 05/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rBabynJwOpNAnOANynjbK7E351Aq1uwUwTmFBK1c5Iyi3Wf7if6fScAX9-3RIiLrwcBEA-Mm$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

    LAT...LON 28429673 27909764 27919830 28279869 28779881 29359870
    29689789 29759703 29699648 29279605 28889612 28589646
    28429673=20



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