• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0595

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 11 21:37:58 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 112137
    SPC MCD 112137=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0595
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0437 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

    Areas affected...East-central Texas and far southwest Louisiana

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 164...

    Valid 112137Z - 112300Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 164

    SUMMARY...Severe storms in east-central Texas may move out of watch
    164 in the next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...The strongest storms within watch 164 are moving into
    Trinity county, Texas at 2130Z. The environment downstream of this
    ongoing activity remains favorable with 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and
    effective shear around 35 to 40 knots per SPC mesoanalysis. In
    addition, this activity is located near a warm frontal boundary.
    Locally backed winds near this boundary are increasing low-level
    SRH. The KPOE VWP can be used as a proxy for this low-level shear
    profile and it is showing 0-1 SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2 and flow
    around 2km has increased to around 45 knots. Therefore, a localized
    tornado threat will exist near this warm front over the next few
    hours as these storms move across east-central Texas.=20

    In addition, given the favorable downstream environment, this
    activity may persist east of watch 164 and a downstream watch may be
    needed across portions of southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana.

    ..Bentley/Hart.. 05/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uIhhqL2j1PkWp9OWCjBSe4mg6g5Vs7xwmkH32ZXBlxdBDtplIfSYwSX-6Ip0L1Th5HD54gao$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 31479526 31369401 30959318 30169330 29969401 30259552
    30389592 30689616 31479526=20

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