Mesoscale Discussion 0595
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0437 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021
Areas affected...East-central Texas and far southwest Louisiana
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 164...
Valid 112137Z - 112300Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 164
SUMMARY...Severe storms in east-central Texas may move out of watch
164 in the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...The strongest storms within watch 164 are moving into
Trinity county, Texas at 2130Z. The environment downstream of this
ongoing activity remains favorable with 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and
effective shear around 35 to 40 knots per SPC mesoanalysis. In
addition, this activity is located near a warm frontal boundary.
Locally backed winds near this boundary are increasing low-level
SRH. The KPOE VWP can be used as a proxy for this low-level shear
profile and it is showing 0-1 SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2 and flow
around 2km has increased to around 45 knots. Therefore, a localized
tornado threat will exist near this warm front over the next few
hours as these storms move across east-central Texas.=20
In addition, given the favorable downstream environment, this
activity may persist east of watch 164 and a downstream watch may be
needed across portions of southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana.
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