• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0594

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 11 19:00:29 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 111900
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 111859=20
    TXZ000-112100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0594
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0159 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of central into eastern Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 111859Z - 112100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...There appears potential for an evolving cluster of
    thunderstorms to become better organized and posing increasing risk
    for damaging wind gusts by 4-5 PM CDT, if not before.

    DISCUSSION...The bulk of increasingly widespread convection
    approaching the Interstate 35 into Interstates 20/30 corridors of
    central into northeast Texas remains rooted above a cool/stable
    surface-based layer. However, across and north of the upper Texas
    coastal plain, daytime heating is contributing to erosion of the
    shallow leading edge of this air mass, with isolated storms now
    initiating along the front, north of College Station and Huntsville.
    =20
    Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, boundary-layer moisture,
    characterized by lower 70s F surface dewpoints, advecting northward
    across and above the cool surface-based air is contributing to
    sizable CAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg. As inflow of this air
    continues, further intensification of storms along the front is
    possible. Eventually this activity may merge into the approaching
    upstream convection, which may also begin to intensify as it
    encounters increasing inflow of this unstable air.

    Although flow in the lower through mid-levels is rather modest in
    strength, deep-layer shear, beneath 50-70 kt westerly flow around
    300 mb, could eventually contribute to organizing convection which
    might pose increasing risk for potentially damaging wind gusts by
    21-22Z, if not earlier.

    ..Kerr/Thompson.. 05/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ugE_1dgYHR_fshvi0uVmfRLUGIVFs3wh2j4RJDI-zFi53ndM4oI9kGpoUknqY6yOnCyAiIIC$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

    LAT...LON 31889726 32249610 32509453 31419434 30839572 30699634
    30079712 30239797 30749832 31399781 31889726=20



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