Mesoscale Discussion 0594
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021
Areas affected...Parts of central into eastern Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 111859Z - 112100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...There appears potential for an evolving cluster of
thunderstorms to become better organized and posing increasing risk
for damaging wind gusts by 4-5 PM CDT, if not before.
DISCUSSION...The bulk of increasingly widespread convection
approaching the Interstate 35 into Interstates 20/30 corridors of
central into northeast Texas remains rooted above a cool/stable
surface-based layer. However, across and north of the upper Texas
coastal plain, daytime heating is contributing to erosion of the
shallow leading edge of this air mass, with isolated storms now
initiating along the front, north of College Station and Huntsville.
Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, boundary-layer moisture,
characterized by lower 70s F surface dewpoints, advecting northward
across and above the cool surface-based air is contributing to
sizable CAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg. As inflow of this air
continues, further intensification of storms along the front is
possible. Eventually this activity may merge into the approaching
upstream convection, which may also begin to intensify as it
encounters increasing inflow of this unstable air.
Although flow in the lower through mid-levels is rather modest in
strength, deep-layer shear, beneath 50-70 kt westerly flow around
300 mb, could eventually contribute to organizing convection which
might pose increasing risk for potentially damaging wind gusts by
21-22Z, if not earlier.
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